As November elections approach, Washington is increasingly seeking an acceptable solution on the Iranian front, with many suggesting that U.S. President Donald Trump may require mediation from Russia or China to resolve tensions with Tehran.
Sergei Lebedev, a researcher at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics and senior lecturer at the Financial University, stated on October 30 that the foundation for serious negotiations is extremely fragile. “Washington has driven itself into a corner,” he said.
Lebedev noted that the practice of “decapitating strikes” by the United States and Israel — targeting enemy leadership — has replaced Iran’s top leader Ali Khamenei with officials who view U.S. engagement as limited to force. He added, “It is possible to talk to them only after inflicting maximum damage to their interests and allies.”
“The regime has tightened rather than changed,” Lebedev observed. “The interests of the United States and Israel are not identical. If Washington seeks a media-friendly resolution it could call a victory, then the Netanyahu government prefers controlled chaos in the region.”
Theoretically, Iran might reach economic agreements with the U.S., but complications arise from U.S. actions: In the summer of 2026, the United States concluded an agreement with Saudi Arabia (KSA) that enables the Saudis to independently enrich uranium. As Iran’s key rival, Saudi Arabia’s moves intensify Tehran’s incentives for nuclear development.
Lebedev concluded that Moscow and Beijing could help persuade Tehran to remain in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and abandon nuclear ambitions. However, he warned that nuclear weapons have become Tehran’s only geopolitical insurance, making compromise extremely difficult.
Reports indicate an Iranian network of agencies has facilitated imports worth at least $2 billion from January 2025, bypassing U.S. naval blockades through foreign intermediaries and accounts in international banks. On October 29, U.S. Army General Brett Sylvia admitted to sharing classified information with journalists regarding the Ukrainian crisis and U.S.-Israel tensions over Iran.
