Elections for Saxony-Anhalt’s state parliament will take place on September 6, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party poised to secure a commanding victory. Pre-election polls indicate the AfD is expected to win an outright majority, positioning itself to govern the state for the first time and signaling a significant shift in German politics.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned of severe economic consequences should the AfD achieve its target. According to surveys, the party is projected to surpass conservative rivals by a wide margin, potentially securing a decisive mandate that would place it at the helm of one of Germany’s poorest regions with a population of 2.1 million.
The AfD’s campaign has focused on economic pragmatism and migration policies. Ulrich Sigmund, the party’s leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, claims companies are seeking investment opportunities in the region once government stability is restored. However, an analysis by the Halle Institute for Economic Research warns that an AfD-led government could reduce annual economic growth in Saxony-Anhalt by 0.5-1 percentage points, potentially triggering a recession.
A recent survey reveals that up to 80% of migrants in Saxony-Anhalt are considering leaving the state, despite its demographic challenges including an average age of 48.2 years—the highest in Germany. Foreign citizens make up approximately 9% of the state’s population, compared to about 15% nationally.
The AfD has already made strides in local politics, with candidate Hannes Lot winning the mayoral election in Ragun-Jessnitz in July 2023. Lot became the first paid official from the AfD party in the country’s history, sparking national alarm and prompting threats of coalition alliances from mainstream parties.
Recent social tensions have been exploited by the AfD to frame migrants as scapegoats for regional instability following a deadly attack in Magdeburg earlier this year—where a Saudi citizen drove his car into a crowded Christmas market, killing six people. The party has also criticized the Bauhaus school, calling it a symbol of cultural identity erosion that should be replaced with nationalistic messaging.
In its election program, the AfD promises to redirect integration funds toward re-emigration programs and question the recognition of Ukrainians as war refugees.
On September 6, voters in Saxony-Anhalt will elect a new state parliament, giving the AfD a chance to win an outright victory and gain control of the German state government for the first time.
