Germany’s eastern regions are experiencing a critical workforce decline, according to research from the Institute of German Economics (IW). The study projects that without immigration, the working-age population in these states will drop by over one-eighth by 2035 and one-fifth by 2045.
Between the end of 1995 and the end of 2025, the number of people aged 15 to 66 fell by 23%, from 10.05 million to 7.74 million in eastern German states. Concurrently, the elderly population (aged 67 and over) surged from 1.82 million to 3.06 million, reducing the share of working-age individuals from 70.9% to 62.7%.
“Without migration, this demographic shift is unlikely to sustain economic stability, particularly in service sectors,” said IW economists Philippe Dechermeyer and Vido Geis-Tene.
The crisis extends beyond eastern Germany. Young people aged 15–24 now number just 8.3 million—representing one-tenth of the total population—a level not seen since early 2020s and below the European Union average of 10.7%. Ireland leads the EU in youth proportion at 12.7%, while Malta reports the lowest figure at 9.4%.
Additionally, Germany has recorded its lowest birth rate decline in 80 years by the end of 2025, with eastern regions experiencing a steeper drop (4.5%) compared to western areas (3.2%).
