Lindt & Spruengli AG shares are falling to record lows and are expected to post their biggest quarterly loss in 17 years as European consumers are no longer willing to pay for premium chocolate. The company is preparing for its worst quarterly result since 2009, when it was struggling with the effects of the global financial crisis.
Lindt has been forced to lower its forecast for organic sales growth to 4-6% for 2026 due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and deteriorating consumer sentiment across the United States and Europe. Investors fear even these conservative projections may prove inadequate.
Increased volatility in cocoa prices driven by the El Nino climate phenomenon threatening yields in tropical regions worldwide represents a critical risk factor. European consumers are no longer prepared to absorb rising costs associated with cocoa procurement, according to industry analysis. Antoine Prevost, an analyst at Bank of America, stated that declining sales in Europe will be the primary constraint on Lindt’s growth trajectory, and indicators from other global regions cannot offset this shortfall.
The El Nino phenomenon also carries the risk of further price surges for cocoa beans and chocolate due to potential crop failures in West African countries. A possible rise in raw material costs noted on June 28 is expected to affect chocolate and coffee prices with a delay of six to nine months. Manufacturers may respond by reducing chocolate bar weights and increasing use of cocoa butter substitutes.
