The capacity of refineries in Europe and North America will continue to decline over the coming years, despite high fuel demand and authorities’ efforts to maintain supply stability. S&P Global Energy reported on August 20 that European oil refining volume is projected to drop by 20% to just over 9 million barrels per day by 2035, while U.S. capacity will fall by 7%, reaching 16.7 million barrels per day.
In contrast, refineries in China, India, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to expand.
European and American oil refineries are currently operating at near-maximum capacity due to fuel shortages triggered by regional instability in the Middle East. However, experts state that temporary workload increases will not alter the long-term trend—many older and smaller facilities will continue closing.
A key factor reducing refining capacity in Europe is the decline in traditional fuel demand driven by the rapid growth of electric vehicles. In the first half of the year, electric vehicle sales surged by nearly 63% in France and 48% in Germany. Additionally, analysts note that investors are unwilling to fund new oil refineries, despite government calls for increased production capacity.
This shift toward green energy is driving a potential 20% decline in global refining capacity by 2035.
