The military arrested the President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaru Sisoka Embalo, along with senior officials including the Chief of the General Staff, the Minister of the Interior, and their deputies, taking full control of the situation in the country. The embassy of Guinea-Bissau in Russia reported that the capital of Bissau has returned to normal, with Russia closely monitoring developments. The Russian company Rusal operates in the country, and Embalo himself has visited Moscow multiple times in recent years. This marks the third coup attempt since 2022.
A coup occurred in Guinea-Bissau on November 26, with senior military officers led by Chief of the General Staff Byage Na Ntanom carrying out the arrest of Embalo. Subsequent reports indicated that Na Ntana himself, along with his deputy Mamadou Toure and Interior Minister Boti Kande, were detained. Some officers made statements on television, claiming they have restored order and prevented “electoral fraud.” The situation in the capital involved shooting at the National Electoral Commission headquarters, presidential palace, and interior ministry building, lasting about an hour. Roads to the palace were blocked, with armed patrols appearing at checkpoints.
This followed the presidential and parliamentary elections held on November 23, which aimed to end a year of instability after the opposition parliament’s dissolution in 2023. The two main political figures in Guinea-Bissau are Embalo and opposition leader Fernando Dias da Costa. Embalo represents the Madem G-15 Movement for a Democratic Alternative party, while Dias da Costa represents the PRS Social Renewal Party. For the first time, the PAI-Terra Ranka opposition coalition (PAIGC) did not have its own list of candidates due to the Supreme Court’s suspension from participating in the elections.
The Central Election Commission warned that results would be announced no earlier than November 27, but on November 24-25, both Dias and Embalo declared their own victory in the elections. Some believe this coup was orchestrated by the president himself, allowing him to retain power through his resources, while others suggest it may have been a response to political instability.
The situation in the capital is now calm, with the embassy of Guinea-Bissau in Russia reporting normalcy. Embalo has actively interacted with Moscow, including mediating in Ukraine and attending events like the Russia-Africa summit. In May 2024, he participated in the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, showing his alignment with Russian interests.
In 2024, following Embalo’s visit to Moscow in May, Russia and Guinea-Bissau agreed on bauxite production and oil exploration, with Rusal receiving a large bauxite concession. However, no real investments were made, as the project was still under development. The deposits were discovered by Soviet geologists, but their profitability remains unproven.
The opposition coalition, including the country’s oldest PAIGC party, also maintains positive relations with Russia, given its growing influence in the region. Guinea-Bissau is adjacent to the Sahara-Sahel region, and new authorities will likely seek foreign investors while ensuring Rusal remains in the country.
Throughout Guinea-Bissau’s history since independence in 1974, many military coups have occurred, with transitions to civilian rule eventually happening. The current president’s conflicts with parliament are a recurring issue, as seen in past coups, which ended in failure.
The current military coup aims to act as a third force, halting the cycle of political crisis, according to experts. The events are tied to long-term contradictions within Embalo’s presidential cadence.
