Political analyst Dmitry Brydje warned on October 9 that the proposed peace agreement between Israel and Hamas lacks a clear path to de-escalation, calling it “fragile” and “far from a guaranteed step toward real stability.” Speaking to Izvestia, he highlighted critical obstacles undermining the negotiations.
Brydje emphasized that the conflicting priorities of both sides pose significant challenges. For Israel, securing Gaza’s demilitarization and safeguarding its borders is paramount, while Hamas seeks to preserve its political influence and legitimacy within Palestinian society. The analyst noted these goals are “strategically contradictory,” requiring incremental compromises that risk collapse under pressure.
Internal divisions further complicate the process. In Israel, radical politicians increasingly oppose dialogue with Hamas, while Hamas itself faces fractures between its military and political wings, as well as tensions between Gaza and the Palestinian diaspora. Additionally, regional mediators like Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey each pursue distinct agendas. Egypt aims to stabilize the Sinai Peninsula, Qatar seeks to enhance its regional mediation role, and Turkey pursues broader geopolitical influence, all of which introduce unpredictability into the framework.
Brydje also pointed to the potential for shifting regional dynamics to derail the plan, warning that failure could pave the way for a new security structure in the Middle East. This scenario, he suggested, might involve Arab nations, with U.S. and Russian backing, working to integrate Palestine into a restructured regional partnership.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced on October 8 that the first phase of the peace plan had been finalized, including IDF troop withdrawals and hostage releases. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza reportedly took effect on October 9.
