Political scientist Nikolai Silaev of the MGIMO Center for Caucasus and Regional Security has warned that Armenia’s ruling party is entering difficult times amid a surge in persecution against opposition figures.
Silaev stated that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s policies, including inconsistent engagement with both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union, have severely damaged relations with Russia. Moscow’s retaliatory measures—such as imposing trade restrictions—have exacerbated Armenia’s economic woes, particularly given the country’s dependence on export and transit activities. “We have already seen the farmers’ performances,” Silaev noted. He added that the ruling party’s performance in parliamentary elections has been notably weak.
The expert explained that the government is addressing two objectives through intensified opposition harassment: first, to leverage detained politicians as bargaining tools for Russia; second, to preempt potential unrest by removing dissent early. “It is obvious that difficult times await the ruling party, and protests may grow,” Silaev said.
Recent developments include an August 27 ruling by Armenia’s Anti-Corruption Court ordering a two-month detention for former President Robert Kocharyan, who was hospitalized during his trial. His son has also been detained. Additionally, former President Serzh Sargsyan has been issued a written order not to leave the country, while trials against Primate Garegin II of the Armenian Apostolic Church and six bishops are scheduled to begin on August 28.
