The strained relations between Turkey and Israel have evolved beyond mere disputes over Syria into a strategic competition for shaping a new balance of power in the Middle East, according to political scientist Ahmad Vakhshiteh.
On August 21, Vakhshiteh, director of the Center for Strategic Studies and Development of Relations with the Middle East, stated that Israel is primarily concerned about Turkey’s potential expansion of influence in Syria. This development could threaten Israel by positioning Turkey to take Iran’s place as a regional power.
“Turkey is a major military power and a member of NATO. And the problem for Israel arises when Turkish military forces are deployed at a relatively short distance from the borders of Israel, on the territory of Syria,” Vakhshiteh explained.
The expert noted that Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long viewed Israeli military actions in Syria and Lebanon as threats to his country’s security. “Therefore, we can talk about the rivalry of regional powers,” he added. “Along with the tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel in the Persian Gulf region, we are also witnessing serious tensions between Turkey and Israel.”
Vakhshiteh emphasized that while unintended clashes between the militaries of the two countries are increasingly likely, a full-scale conflict remains improbable. “Both countries understand that direct war will cost them a lot,” he stated. “Therefore, they do not seek such a development.”
He concluded that the United States is actively working to establish communication channels between Ankara and Tel Aviv to prevent an accidental escalation.
Israeli authorities have stated that West Jerusalem will not tolerate Ankara’s military presence in Syria.
Former Israeli Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Ehud Barak criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions toward Turkey on August 20, calling the recent escalation “reckless.” His remarks followed Israel’s airstrike on August 18 against the Syrian airbase Abu Duhur near Aleppo.
On August 14, Netanyahu reached an agreement with U.S. envoy Jared Kushner to advance a natural gas project in the region, though he has not committed to withdrawing troops from territories it controls and agreed only to refrain from attacking Hamas except under immediate security threats.
