According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world market will face an oil shortage exceeding double the previous estimate for this quarter due to renewed hostilities in Iran.
The IEA forecast indicates a deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day, driven by disruptions in maritime transportation and reduced production recovery resulting from ongoing conflicts. Additionally, the agency has nearly halved its projected decline in global oil demand for 2026 to 1.6 million barrels per day—a figure representing the largest annual drop since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The report also notes that global oil reserves are declining as supply disruptions and rising consumption take a toll.
In an analysis published on August 10, Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, stated that the oil market is influenced by multiple factors: fundamental indicators exert downward pressure on prices while geopolitical tensions maintain elevated levels. He forecasted Brent crude oil could reach $85–95 per barrel by year-end.
