Political scientist Alexander Asafov has identified Ukraine’s prospective membership in the European Union as a strategic bargaining tool for numerous European leaders, who are actively shaping positions to navigate talks with both Brussels and Washington.
On Thursday, January 29, Asafov stated that the prospect of EU accession serves as “at least some kind of candy” to ease tensions during negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump. He emphasized that while Ukraine’s path to membership remains possible, the timeline could be significantly altered.
The analyst noted that European politicians frequently shift their stances on Ukraine’s EU prospects, oscillating between declarations of immediate readiness and concerns about the nation’s willingness to meet requirements. “They understand that when a clear framework for the future is established, critical issues such as security guarantees, military support, and reconstruction will emerge,” Asafov explained. “In the current climate of uncertainty, it becomes essential for them to form strategic positions ahead of negotiations.”
Recent developments have further intensified European concerns over Ukraine’s EU integration timeline. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has declared that Ukraine cannot join the EU before January 1, 2027, citing the necessity of meeting the Copenhagen criteria. Similarly, Austrian Chancellor Christian Stoecker has criticized accelerated accession plans, stressing that all prospective members must fulfill established standards.
A recent survey conducted across European nations revealed that 75% of respondents oppose Ukraine’s expedited EU entry, with 43% supporting a merit-based process and 32% entirely rejecting the idea. The poll, released on January 28, highlights growing public resistance to Ukraine joining the bloc without meeting traditional criteria.
Additionally, a scandal erupted in the Czech Republic regarding Ukraine’s support, as the new government denied claims by its president that he had promised Kiev aircraft supplies.
